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Sugar Import and Export Situation in the First Half of 2018 and Sugar Industry Development Forecast
Release Date:2018-12-12

Sugar is an important agricultural product related to the national economy and people’s livelihood. In order to stabilize the sugar market, China established a reserve sugar system in 1991. According to the supply and demand situation of the sugar market, the state carry out macroeconomic control through the storage and discharge storage to effectively control the sugar price fluctuation, ensure the silent running of sugar market, protect the vital interests of sugar growers and sugar producers, and thus promote the healthy development of sugar industry.

China is a main net importer of the sugar in the world. For a long time, because of the high cost and the low quality of producing white sugar, and the main international trade is raw sugar and high quality white sugar, the Chinese white sugar has no export advantage. In China, the domestic sugar production mainly meets the domestic consumption demand, and the annual export volume is much lower than the import volume.

From January to May 2018, China´s sugar import volume was 1.1 million tons, decreased by 13.5%. From 2013 to 2017, China´s sugar import volume reached the lowest value of 2.29 million tons in 2017, a decline of 25.2% compared with the same period last year; in 2015, it reached the highest value of 4.85 million tons, an increase of 39% compared with the same period last year.

From January to May 2018, China´s sugar value of import amounted to $435.3 million, and reduced 31.2%. From 2013 to 2017, the lowest sugar import amounted in China was $1078.5 million in 2017; decreased 7.9% of the same period last year, and the highest value was $2068.8 million in 2013, down 7.8% from the same period last year.

From January to May 2018, China´s sugar export volume was 7.14 tons, and increased 138.1% at the same period last year. From 2013 to 2017, China´s sugar exports dropped by 3.3% to a minimum of 46.2 million tons in 2014, and reached a peak of 157.9 million tons in 2017, an increase of 6%.

From January to May 2018, China´s sugar exports value was $38.2 million, and increased of 76.3% over the same period last year. From 2013 to 2017, China´s sugar import value reached the lowest of $37.9 million in 2014, decreased 9.4%, and the highest value of $90.6 million in 2017, an increase of 8.9% compared with the same period last year.

 

Development Forecast of Sugar Industry

Brazil, Thailand and Cuba are the main sources of sugar imports in China. They account for about 90% of the total imported sugar in China. Although both domestic sugar futures and international raw sugar futures have recently witnessed a long-overdue rise in the market, since the fundamentals of the long cycle have not been reversed, the pace of price increases has been slow.

First, we pay attention to Brazilian sugarcane. In 2018/2019, Brazilian sugarcane production was reduced because of the adjustment of sugar ratio and drought. From June to September 2017, in the most sugarcane areas in south-central, the precipitation was significantly less than that in the same period of the year. The drought in some sugarcane areas was serious, which was unfavorable to the elongation of sugarcane stalks. From April to May 2018, because the persistent drought affected, the growth of sugarcane was worse than that of the same period last year. The total production of sucrose in Brazil in the 2018/2019 crop season is expected to be 35.7 million tons, a decrease of 3.8 million tons from the previous year, a decrease of 9.6%.

Despite the threat of reducing sugar production in Brazil, the International Sugar Organization predicts that the global sugar supply will still exceed 11 million tons in the 2017/2018 crushing season, mainly due to higher than expected output in India and Thailand. Subsequently, the major producing countries began to save themselves. India plans to launch a 3 million-ton government reserve plan. Thailand also plans to use more sugarcane for ethanol production. At the same time, the proportion of sugarcane used in Brazil´s sugar industry dropped by 10% compared with the same period of last year, which promoted the price of raw sugar to rise again, and the long-term low sugar price would inevitably lead to the unexpected reduction in production. It is expected that production will be reduced by 7 million tons in the squeezing season of 2018/2019 in Brazil. However, India is still unable to form a production reduction mechanism because the purchase price of sugarcane has not been lowered, but there is a possibility that sugar mills will take the initiative to reduce the squeezing schedule.

As for China, by the end of May, the national sugar output in the 17/18 squeezing season was 10.31 million tons, an increase of 1.02 million tons over the same period last year, which is in line with expectations. By the end of May, the cumulative sales of sugar in China totaled 5.75 million tons, an increase of 460,000 tons over the same period of last year; the monthly sales of sugar in May were 1.10 million tons, higher than the average of the past five years, and the year-to-year sales in May were better than expected, which means that the market fundamentals improved gradually. From past experience, the sales rate in June is probably higher than that in May, which means that sugar sales will reach around 1 million tons in June this year, and the market will continue to maintain a rapid de-inventory phase.

Overall, the future pattern of international sugar oversupply remains unchanged. Later, the rise of sugar lacks long-term basic support, or will continue to be under pressure.

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