According to the survey, excess supply and demand on sugar in international market has turned to be insufficient in the period of sugar making during 2015-2016 after five years since 2000. Foreign exchange rate for currency of Brazil and Thailand as well as many other sugar export counties has bounced back, and energy price continuously keeps sustained and stable. New York futures price of raw sugar has risen sharply, hitting a four-year high of 23.6 cents per pound to settle at 22.65 cents per pound in the end of term of sugar making, with an increase of more than 84.6% year-on-year, biggest gain in 93.4%. During the whole period of sugar making, New York futures price of raw sugar has seemed to fluctuate in the range of 12.45 cents per pound to 23.6 cents per pound.
As to the next period of sugar making during 2016-2017, global sugar market had been widely expected to be still in short supply. Sugar yield in India, Thailand and many other regions is projected to drop; in contrast, Sugar yield in Europe, China, Russia and many other regions is projected to grow. In general, global sugar yield is going to be increased but that isn’t enough to make up for the addition of global consumption for sugar. As predicted by Czarnikow Co., global sugar yield will be up to 4,560,000 tons to 178,700,000 tons, among which Brazil’s will rise to 4,390,000 tons to 40,750,000 tons, global sugar consumption will increase to roughly 1%, and international production-demand gap will be 9,800,000 tons. According to the report from F. O, Licht, global sugar yield will be up to 7,660,000 tons to 177,000,000 tons, among which beet’s will rise to 3,410,000 tons and sugarcane’s will add to 4,250,000 tons. ISO predicted that global sugar yield will be 168,000,000 tons with an increase of more than 2,170,000 year-on-year, up 1.31%; global sugar consumption will be 175,100,000 tons with an increase of more than 3,470,000 year-on-year, up 2.02%; international production-demand gap will be 7,050,000 tons with an increase of more than 1,300,000 year-on-year; ending stocks will be 75,600,000 tons with a decrease of more than 6,960,000 year-on-year, and ending stocks consumption ratio is down 4.9 points at 43.2%, hitting a lowest level since the period of sugar making during 2010-2011.
Rising price helps production recovered but is bad for consumption increased. Meanwhile, due to having multiple properties of bulk commodities, energy and finance, international sugar price will be influenced not only by the relation of supply and demand but also by the energy price and foreign exchange fluctuation; therefore, in the period of sugar making during 2015-2016, fundamentals of supply and demand on sugar will keep price constantly going up to the resistance; however, the pace and where that resistance will be struck or should be struck may be inevitably limited by energy price and foreign exchange fluctuation.